The attainment gap is increasing

We’ve just completed writing assessments for just over 75,000 KS3 students.

We’ve assessed the writing of this cohort for the past few years. One of the most striking features of this summer’s results is the big increase in the spread of attainment. Low attainers are getting lower scores than they were before — and high attainers are getting higher scores.

Comparing the same pupils from September to May

28,447 Year 7 pupils took part in both our September and May writing assessments. Here you can see their scores compared: September (yellow) and May (purple).

The average score in May was a bit higher than the average score in September. But the really striking difference is in the spread of scores. More students are getting the higher scores, and more getting the lower scores. We see the same pattern in Year 8 and Year 9.

Comparing different pupils at the end of Year 7

Perhaps this kind of increase in spread is normal — there is some suggestion that in maths, for example, the spread of attainment increases as students age. Is this the case with writing? To answer this question, we can go back and look at some of our historic data. What about if we compare the May 2023 Year 7 scores with the scores of Year 7s a year ago, back in May 2022? Now we are not comparing the same pupils — we are comparing pupils from different cohorts at the same point in their educational journey. When we do this, we find that the spread of attainment has also increased. This May is the curve in purple, and you can see there are many more pupils getting the high and low scores, and fewer getting the median score.

Comparing progress made by Year 7s in 2021–22 with progress made by Year 7s in 2022–23

We can also see what progress was like across the year in 2021–22 and if we saw a similar increase in the spread. We did not. Instead we saw what we’d say is a much more typical pattern — a general shift upwards of attainment, with the spread remaining about the same.

What about other year groups?

We see the same pattern in Years 8 & 9. We have also seen increases in the spread of attainment throughout this year in all but one of the primary year groups too (see here: Year 1, Year 2, Year 3, Year 4, Year 6).

What’s the cause?

The challenging thing we have to account for in all of the above data is not just that the weakest students have fallen back — but that the strongest students have got better.

For more discussion about the reasons behind this, see our Substack here.